Positive Self-Talk

 Dear Fellow Trader,

Positive self-talk is an important trading hack (life hack in general). How you identify yourself, becomes your identity. Your habits, relationships, surroundings, universe start falling in that line. If you are not going to encourage yourself and think positive/good about yourself, who else will.

I see a lot of traders who put description like 

‘flop trader’ 

‘failed trader’

‘pathetic trader’

‘loser’

‘lost xx amount in trading’

Please understand, this is not helping you improve. Also, there are lot many people, who doesn’t put such negative description in their bio, but are carrying it in their head. All such negative thoughts and acceptance of negative traits reflects back and makes things even worse. What you send out to the universe, comes back to you. There are enough people out there to pull you down, you don’t have to join them. 

As part of my profession I teach ‘Brand Management’, the brand development process starts with ‘brand identity’, i.e. how an organisation want to be perceived by the customers. Similarly the self-development process starts with a positive self identity and a positive self-talk. 

Knowing your improvement areas is important but accepting them as part of you shows clear lack of motivation and discipline to improve them. They will only aggravate further.

Please have positive self-talks. Your failures don’t define you, what you learn from them and how you grow from there on defines you. Learn from your mistakes and identify yourself as a learner/fighter/perseverant, whatever. Your actions and universe will always fall in line to match your perception about yourself. 

Stay Positive!! Keep Learning!! Keep Hustling!! 

Happy Trading!!

Price is Everything

Price is Everything!!

Price is the ultimate truth

Price reflects support, resistance, news, euphoria, panic, indecision...

Here is one of the resources from forex factory I referred to in my formative years in trading, great insights into price action trading. 

Request to the readers... take time to go through charts and the nuances of price action trading. Don't read through...Imbibe!!

Happy Learning!! Happy Trading

Download here: Price is Everything

How to search for keywords in twitter

 Dear Fellow Traders,

 

Over past 2.5 years a lot has been shared on DP trading on this twitter handle. I have tried to put things in perspective and put forth the nuances of DP trading, a legacy left by Nifty Nirvana. 

During this time the tweets, replies and discussions have been pretty in-depth and to a large extent addresses concepts, nuances and adjustments involved in DP trading. Together we all have created this gold mine on decision points trading. Will keep contributing in my own ways here.

 

However, at times traders, especially those who are new to this twitter handle keep getting confused on concepts and adjustments. I keep telling them to dig into earlier tweets, but it is not an easy task also. 

This post is for the uninitiated ones, how to look for keywords on any twitter handle.

 

Step 1: Go to google.com and search ‘Twitter advanced search’

 

Step 2: Click onto ‘Twitter advanced search’

 

Step 3: A window like this will pop up 👇

 

Step 4: Put in the keywords that you want to search

Suppose one has doubt/queries like (i) does DP trading works on stocks (ii) why not stocks, why only NF (iii) which levels to keep in mind for using DP trading in stocks

 

Put the keyword as ‘stocks’

 

Step 5: Scroll down to ‘Accounts’ and in ‘From these accounts’ fill in the twitter handle from where you want to extract tweets

 

For my handle, type ‘@fornifty’ and hit enter … results will be in front of you, scroll down and identify the relevant tweets from a very small pool of keyword search results.

 

There are lot many options available in the advanced search pop up window, one can explore them further.

 

Happy trading!!

 

Using Option Chain Data

 I am not a pro at reading options data, but it gives some insights into the broad direction. Here are few pointers based on my limited knowledge and usage of options data:

1. Option chain data in itself is non-conclusive
2. It is based on the premise that ‘big’ money prefers to sell options
3. Option selling by design shifts the probability in the favour of the trader

After a trader sells options, market can (i) go in his direction (ii) go against his direction (iii) can stay rangebound around entry price … both (i) and (iii) scenarios will result in profit for the trader. Scenario (iii) is to be managed. Probability of success is already 0.67.

4. I broadly look at change of OI in ITM options and few strikes away in both the directions. If the OI is increasing more on one side, option sellers are in charge and selling call/put in that direction

Change in OI higher in calls —> call sellers in charge —> Indications of market going down

Change in OI higher in puts —> put sellers in charge —> Indications of market going up

5. Options data has to be looked in totality, stand alone data will not reflect anything actionable

Market moving up + Put OI increasing = Move may continue

Market moving up + Call OI increasing = Non-conclusive

Market moving down + Call OI increasing = Move may continue

Market moving down + Put OI increasing = Non-conclusive

6. Option data is just an additional tool to my DP trading. Trades are identified based on the market structure as per DP guidelines, Options data can at times give insights on the move/counter-move to continue or not.

7. ‘Big’ money knows that retail traders use option data to enter/confirm trades ….manipulations are pretty high.

8. Open interest data can change pretty quickly. Before the reversal reflects in the data, it can happen on the charts. Also, overnight the whole data can change. I was closely following options data during the 6th Oct 2021 fall, till the market closed data did not indicate any strength in the put option selling (for market to reverse). The OI was heavily skewed on the Calls side. But the next day (weekly expiry) market gaps up 160+ points and never reversed from there.

To conclude, I am not a pro in reading options chain. But options chain is not a holy grail, as few traders (trainers) claim it to be. I have always found stand alone options data as non-conclusive. It can give a broad direction of the market based on the change in open interest. The open interest data can change pretty quickly and if I may put it that way, it is not a leading indicator. Change in price may occur faster than what reflects in options chain. Keeping a track of ITM and few strikes on both sides helps. Especially look for huge additions and huge unwinding in various strikes. At end, I see most of the traders using ‘trend’ in option chain data to identify something actionable. Thats where lies the key, ‘identifying the trend’, be it in price, options data, volume, leading/lagging indicators. 

Happy Trading!!

Good to be back!!

First of all my abject apologies for not responding to the tweets/DMs/emails. I am overwhelmed to see the love from all of you. It means a lot to see people whom I have never met concerned about my wellbeing. By god’s grace, all is good. He has been really very kind.

I was on a self-forced exile/break/sabbatical. 

So what was I doing all this while… Trading… definitely YES!! Working on fine-tuning existing DP method… YES (more like self-fulfilling prophecies). Working on long term wealth creation … YES!!

Invested my time on experimenting with options, options hedging, equity. Was working closely with an investment firm to suggest short to medium term stocks. Still have few deliverables going on with them. Will be sharing few of my stock picks as and when they show up on my list. 

Will start posting more frequently very soon. Though have limited my DP trades, will post my readings whenever possible and other educational stuff. Focus is on creating long term wealth. 

Day trading is for earnings... Investing is for creating wealth in a longer run.

Happy Trading!!

"Trades not taken"

Dear All

Too many queries regarding what trade I took and what all trades I did not take. Kindly note that the trades that I take, the underlying premise is mentioned on the chart itself. Otherwise, question can be asked at every bar, why was trade not taken there. It will not be possible for me to explain the underlying logic of not taking trades. Please note, if I have not taken a trade it might be because of the following reasons:

1. I am a conservative trader, I do not jump onto trades the moment they start taking shape. I usually wait for further confirmation.
2. More often than not I will avoid BO trades, unless there has been BoF of minor/major pivot before that or consolidation of price before BO.
3. Immediately after a strong move in a direction I am not comfortable in taking BoF trades in the reverse direction, unless the strength in the prior move has faded.
4. I will stay out of the market if the direction is not clear to me. Even if that means missing out on few good setups.
5. I might not have read it that way. I commit so many trading mistakes during the day. Not reading charts properly at times, jumping onto trades, leaving too much on table, exiting at wrong places. I do fail to read the price action correctly at times. 

I’ll reiterate, if I have not taken a trade it can be because (i) waiting for more confirmation (ii) Avoiding BO trades (iii) Not trading against a strong move (iv) Direction is not clear (v) I am not able to read the charts at that particular moment.

Will appreciate if lesser queries on ‘trades not taken’ are posed, will be difficult with my bandwidth to answer them all.

Happy Trading!!

Why I don't conduct training programs and webinars

I receive a lot of requests for conducting online/offline training programs. However, I do not conduct any training/webinar etc. owing to following reasons:

1. My schedule does not allow: I am not a full time trader. I have a full-time job that I enjoy. It gives me cushion to trade with conviction. Also, I have tried full time trading too, found it very lonesome process. But my current bandwidth does not allow to squeeze in time for training sessions.

1. Nothing new to offer:  The method, guidelines, structure is out in the open. The nuances that I can read in the market are shared on the twitter itself. Essentially, there is nothing new that I can offer during the trainings. The same method, same theory, same nuances will be discussed. Many participants might not find ‘value’ in it. I see so many traders/trainers offering training on DP method based on some ‘secret recipe’ ‘different terminology for the same concepts’ or ‘ some proprietary add-ons’ to the strategy…in essence it is all the same concepts with marketing gimmicks added to it.

1. If at all…it will come at a cost: If at all I squeeze out time to conduct training/webinars it will be at a substantial cost. I am all for free knowledge, especially when the originator (Nifty Nirvana) kept it free. But my time, effort and energy comes at a cost. It takes time everyday to mark and post trades along with handling queries. That much for what I feel I owe to the trader community at large. The onus of learning it for free is on you. Beyond that, for the same concepts, a premium is attached.

Just to reiterate…I do not have anything new to offer apart from the method that is already available for free. The nuances and market reading I already discuss  on twitter for free. Beyond this (I) my bandwidth does not allow (ii) if at all…it will come at a premium. 

But then, why pay for the same concepts, rather focus on the process:

Read-learn →imbibe →practice →learn/unlearn/re-learn →imbibe →practice →trade small →make losses →learn →trade small →gradually increase →reap profits 

Happy Trading!!